By Nancy Dahlberg, Nicholas Nehamas and Chabeli Herrera
November 11, 2016
The king of real estate is set to rule the country, but what will a Donald Trump presidency mean for local real estate, one of South Florida’s biggest industries?
We wanted to gauge response from Realtors, developers, economists, bankers and lawyers about possible impacts of the election, both in the short and long term.
We asked: Will a new president — especially a political unknown like Trump — mean uncertainty for Miami real estate? What will the election’s impact be on sales and developer activity?
We also wanted to know their views on whether Latin American investors would hesitate to invest in President Trump’s America after his strong anti- immigration stance. Will his election depress demand from Latin American buyers?
Overall, those who responded are mostly bullish, as you might expect from businesspeople who depend on optimism and consumer confidence for sales. We’ve selected a representative sampling of the views expressed and excerpted comments they made, mostly via email. (Thanks to the team at Bendixen & Amandi, our partners on our annual Real Estate survey, which helped us put out the word.)
While markets don’t like uncertainty, the transactions scheduled to close before the end of the year likely took political risks into consideration, Meland said. “So, in the short term, we do not see much impact [on] the markets. Certainly, interest rate volatility is more impactful in the short run. In the long term, a Republican president with a Republican House and Senate should provide for similar, or favorable, tax treatment for real estate transactions.”
The maturity and stability of the market and the U.S. dollar are more important factors than immigration policy, he said. “While some foreign buyers may be investing for immigration purposes, i.e. EB-5 investments, most are investing in the U.S. market for the stability of the market, as a hedge against currency fluctuations/devaluations and inflation in native countries. The devaluation of Latin American currencies to the dollar (i.e. Mexico) could have potentially negative effects on the real estate market as U.S. real estate assets will be more expensive for these foreigners.”
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